20 May 2013
Thursday, 05 July 2012 06:24

The SCAF Is Here to Stay

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The Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi was sworn in on Saturday at the Constitutional Court as the new president of Egypt. He then went on to Cairo University for his inauguration; Morsi’s speech disappointed many as it praised the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF). "The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has kept its word and fulfilled its promise," he said. "The elected institutions will come back to take their role, and the Egyptian armed forces, Egypt's great army, will return to protecting the borders of the country."

He said the military would remain "strong and solid" and that he would keep "good relations between this institution and the people." Activist Ahmad Aggour (@Psypherize) said it best in an interview with the Los Angeles Times:

"That's the price he had to pay to win… He officially told the army: ‘I will be your puppet, I'll protect your interests, and ensure your safety.' That's why Tantawi was clapping."

Quietly the supposed date for SCAF to hand over power went by without so much as a peep coming out of Field Marshall Mohamed Tantawi and his cronies making up the military junta. With parliament dissolved and the executive powers limited, the SCAF is considered to be the keystone holding the Arab Republic of Egypt in place. President Morsi reiterated this truth during his inauguration speech.

The euphoria of a new president is only temporary and soon Morsi will be reminded of what little role he has in Egyptian politics. Mori’s supposed “honeymoon stage” will come to an end when he is put in check by the Salafis, Muslim Brotherhood and the SCAF. Pessimism aside, this is only the beginning of Egypt’s transition towards slow change.

Egypt is often compared to its Middle Eastern neighbors like Turkey, Algeria, as well as many Latin American countries. Egypt is more commonly referred to the Turkey model or example, and yes, it could be possible that the Muslim Brotherhood can follow the steps of the AKP. However, whether that happens only time can tell. It is important to be reminded that Egypt is EGYPT and cannot be likened to other states. Regardless, it is simple for anyone to make correlations to any form of government. Since Iran is often an example in terms of Islamism, I conjured my own similarities of how Egypt can be compared to Iran to express how simple correlations can be made. The SCAF can be comparable to the Council of Guardians, the Supreme Leader Khamenei can be Field Marshall Tantawi, Morsi can be comparable to president Ahmadinejad. The simplicity is what makes me rather weary of what is taking place in Egypt.

Nevertheless, the fears of an “Islamic Republic of Egypt” seems less likely especially with the SCAF residing over Egyptian affairs and Morsi’s talk of nominating a Coptic Christian female vice president.

As much as we would like to hope, the SCAF is in a comfortable position. They know that outside of Tahrir Square and the social media sphere, people are more or less content with the direction they are taking Egypt. Having that being said, why would the SCAF want to leave power to the Muslim Brotherhood or anyone for that matter? With the armed forces on their side and foreign backing (i.e. The United States), the prospects of toppling the Egyptian military junta are close to nil. The only time something big could take place is if there was a coup amongst the 22 members of the SCAF. Even so, Egypt would end up with the same common denominator: a military regime. You see, the army stood by and watched during the 18 days of the January 25th ‘Revolution’ to see if President Hosni Mubarak or the people would win. It was only after his mild concessions had failed that the military leaders decided to side with the people. The SCAF are all about themselves and the status quo, they will continue to maintain it. Unfortunately, the Egyptians are going to have to get used to their presence. The SCAF is here to stay.

By Holly Dagres, Aslan Media Columnist
*Photo Credit: Zeinab Mohamed

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About the Columnist: Holly Dagres

Holly, an Iranian-American, is a commentator and analyst on the Middle East. She has travelled throughout the region and spent her teen years in Tehran, Iran. Holly graduated from UCLA, where she earned a degree in both Political Science and French. Currently living in Egypt, she is a researcher at the Cairo Review of Global Affairs and pursuing a master’s degree in International Relations at American University in Cairo.

Her website is www.politicallyaffiliated.com

Follow Holly on Twitter @politicallyaff
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